SAN FRANCISCO – Apple has jump-started the PC, phone and tablet markets. Can it do the same for the wearables market?
On Tuesday, Apple's long-rumored smartwatch – many call it iWatch – is expected to make its debut. Apple is also expected to unfurl the iPhone 6 and a mobile-payments system at a product extravaganza in Cupertino, Calif., near its corporate headquarters.
One of the many story lines is whether iWatch will make the same impact as market-shaping products before it, such as Macintosh (PCs), iPhone (smartphones) and iPad (tablets).
"It (iWatch) will be one of its most important and brand-reinforcing launches in years," says James McQuivey, an analyst at market researcher Forrester, which expects Apple to sell more than 10 million iWatches through 2016. "If Apple manages to combine a whole range of phone-based services on the wrist band, it will have the same impact as iPhone and iPad."
McQuivey and others expect Apple to lift the wrist-based wearable tech market, where less than 10 million devices have been sold in the U.S. According to new Forrester data, 25% of American adults plan to buy a wearable device in the next year, and 42% are interested in a wrist-based device.
Apple will become a market leader next year, though it should expect plenty of competition from Google and Amazon.com.
As it has done before with iPhone and iPad, Apple isn't the first to market. But it is often the first to market to get it right, analysts say.
Despite a raft of well-received wrist-based devices on the market, like FitBit and the Pebble Smart watch, the category has yet to catch on with the public.
But eMarketer doesn't expect a seismic change overnight. Though there is widespread consumer awareness of such products – three in four say they know of wearables – only 2% own them.
"No, it's not the year of the wearable," says Cathy Boyle, an analyst at eMarketer. "The market needs a magic product, and maybe Apple is it."
Boyle anticipates the wearables market to take off in 2016.
Another market could benefit from Apple's mega-launch: near field communication (NFC) mobile payments, which is expected to be part of the rumored iPhone 6 and iWatch.
"Apple doing anything can change the game," says Kamran Zaki, president of Adyen, a payment-processing service. Merchants have been hesitant to embrace NFC because the technology is not compatible with most current point-of-sales devices and would require pricey upgrades from merchants, but the power of Apple among consumers could change that, he says.
source: usatoday.com
